Renewable Fuels - Advancing European Market Uptake

The European transport sector is the only major sector where greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are continuously increasing. According to the European Environment Agency, in 2016 the transport sector contributed 27 percent of total EU greenhouse gas emissions and they were 26.1 percent higher compared to 1990. While road transport has contributed the most to the transport sector’s GHG emissions, the largest increase in final energy consumption has occurred in the aviation sector between 1990 and 2016, and this sector is expected to continue growing rapidly.

International shipping activity is also expected to increase as it is driven by increasing globalization and trade. In response to increasing emissions, the EU has set several targets to mitigate and limit GHG emissions from transport. An overall target of a 60 percent reduction in GHG emission within the transport sector by 2050 was set in 2011 (compared to 1990) – still too low to reach the 2015 Paris Agreement aspiring to limit global warming to less than 1.5°C. In 2015, the study “Emission reduction targets for international aviation and shipping” conducted for the European Parliament suggests that by 2050 global aviation emissions should be at least 41 percent lower than in 2005, and the global emissions of the shipping sector to be at least 63 percent lower. 

Renewable fuels are among the most viable options to reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector. While electrification becomes more significant, (mainly in road and rail transport), advanced biofuels are expected to maintain a significant role for the shipping and aviation sectors – especially in the short- and mid-term. A number of scenarios conducted for the European Commission and by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate the need for large quantities of renewable fuel demanded by 2050. With the aim of contributing to the Paris Agreement goals, the PRIMES scenarios foresee a major increase in current biofuel use. If demand in 2050 is to be met completely by advanced biofuels, this implies a more than 10-fold increase of their uptake in the time frame between 2017-2050. For the successful and sufficient market uptake of biofuels, feedstock has to be produced sustainably in sufficient quantities.

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